India at the Forefront: Examining the Consequences of Surpassing China in Population Growth
According to recent estimations, India has surpassed China to become the world’s most populated country. India’s population was estimated by Bloomberg to be 1.417 billion at the end of 2022 based on U.N. projections, whereas China’s population was estimated by the National Bureau of Statistics to be slightly less than 1.412 billion at the end of 2022, a decrease from how many people it had in 2021.
India currently outnumbers China by 5 million people. It’s possible that India passed China at some point in the previous year.
For at least a dozen years, South Asia as a whole has had a population of roughly 1.8 billion, surpassing China’s. Had the former British Raj not been divided into India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, undivided India would have already had a larger population than China.
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What are the reasons behind India surpassing China?
India’s population is higher than China’s for the following two reasons. First off, India has historically had a sizable population, particularly in its productive northern plains. Wheat, a winter grain, and rice, a summer grain, can both be grown there for climatic reasons, producing twice as much food as in many other regions of the world. Second, due to a delay in education, India migrated away from greater fertility rates later than China did.
India has recently increased its fertility rate to two children for every woman, proving that fertility declines are possible without the use of extreme restrictions like China’s one-child policy.
However, given that many Indians are already approaching childbearing age—two-thirds of Indians are under 35 years old—the country’s population will continue to rise for some time. Furthermore, not all of India’s states are experiencing a fall in fertility rates.
In contrast to several southern states, where the fertility rate is significantly below the 2.1 children per woman needed for a population to replace itself, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, two of India’s most populous Hindi-speaking northern states, have fertility rates of 2.35 and 2.98 children per woman, respectively.
Contrary to popular opinion, certain communities have much greater birth rates than other groups. Fertility is declining across all religious, linguistic, and ethnic groupings.
India has conducted censuses every ten years since 1881. The COVID-19 pandemic delayed the 2021 census, so the most recent one was conducted in 2011. Even though the epidemic is still cited as the official reason for the delay, it is uncertain when the census will be conducted. Most observers anticipate that it will happen only after India’s general elections in 2024.
Implications of this event
India’s time has come. India is a nation teeming with vibrancy, innovation, diversity, and progress despite its issues, persistent destitution, inter-communal conflicts, and the disparate reach of opportunities and education. With more than two-thirds of its population of working age, India must take advantage of this expansion opportunity.
And while there is still a lot of unemployment and unofficial employment, manufacturing is moving to India, including crucial sectors like semiconductors and cell phones, and India is on track to overtake the United States as the third-largest economy by the end of the decade. India is also developing its infrastructure, including semi-high-speed trains made locally. A Telugu-language film, “RRR,” just won an Indian film its first Golden Globe award, demonstrating the expansion of Indian culture into more international arenas.
Most crucially, India is moving away from being an accessory to other people’s economic and geopolitical theories and into its own as a significant economic and geopolitical player. It aspires to follow the East Asian example of favoring domestic production over the free trade model supported by the West.
Instead of supporting either the West or Russia during the Ukraine war, India has strengthened its independent stance on geopolitics. This decision has earned it accolades from Pakistan for following an independent strategy.
With 30 million residents in and around NCR, New Delhi is the most populous city in India. If Delhi had been a country, it might have had a population of 50 million people. Mumbai (20 million), Kolkata (15 million), and Bengaluru (12 million) are the next largest cities after Delhi.
Window Of Opportunity
India’s population expansion is seen as an opportunity by experts. India’s sizable young population has a great deal of potential to boost the nation’s economy and growth. But to take full advantage of this chance, education, skill development, and healthcare must be quickly improved.
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Another difficulty is that the country’s urban centers are anticipated to become even more overburdened due to population expansion. India’s urban population is expected to increase from 483 million in 2020 to 675 million in 2035, according to the UN.
Conclusion
India has consistently adhered to its own goal, but over the coming ten years, this will become more obvious as India pushes on with its plans. India, the most populous nation on earth, will advocate for its interests, beliefs, and aspirations on the international stage because it has one of the biggest economies and militaries in the world.
